Well being in DC most of the time, I’ll confess I’m not directly watching the governor’s race in my home state. Sure, I’ve kept up with the polls and read the commentary, but I think when you’re home and watching the ads and reading the home newspaper you get a different appreciation for the race. And boy is this one getting down and dirty. I haven’t even been home for 24 hours, but I’ve already been bombarded with negative ads the entire time.

It’s no surprise then that a recent poll reported by the New York Times shows voters growing weary of the campaign. The same poll also includes some worrisome information for the Junior Senator from New Jersey.

In a state where voters traditionally decide which lever to pull in the final days of a campaign, 14 percent of likely voters were undecided, and one-third of those who signaled support for a candidate said they may still change their mind. Mr. Corzine also remains potentially vulnerable to Mr. Forrester’s promise to clean up rampant corruption by sweeping Democrats out of office.

While the survey’s respondents gave both men nearly identical marks for personal integrity and moral values, they said by a 10-point margin that the Democratic Party was more likely than the Republican Party to have corrupt politicians. The poll also found that the more closely voters followed the campaign, the less likely they were to support Mr. Corzine.

That New York Times poll however, has Corzine at 46% and Forrester at 37%.

Things might not be so bad though, as always apply the obligatory grain of salt to poll results, two other recent polls come with some differences.

Yesterday, Monmouth University with the Gannet News Corporation released a poll showing Corzine at 45% and Forrester at 38%. The poll however says that Forrester is having trouble locking in his base, and recent movement to his side is done so as an “anti-Corzine” vote rather than a vote for the GOP. Recent elections should have taught us however that the anti vote usually ends up loosing. Most recently the Anybody But Bush campaign, and before that Dole with Anybody But Clinton.

The other poll, which is better news for Democrats, was released on Thursday by Quinnipiac University, showing the Senator hitting 50% to Forrester’s 43%. However, this poll’s toplines echo a disturbing trend among voters also shown in the NYT poll. On the question of Corruption:

A total of 92 percent of New Jersey likely voters say government corruption is a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem.
[...]
By a 50 - 22 percent margin, voters associate the Democratic Party with corruption, rather than the Republican Party.

Yet Corzine retains a lead among independents the group one would most logically associate with breaking away from a candidate they linked with corruption. In that group Corzine leads Forrester at 50%. So while the polls show mixed results, I think they should be sending a very clear message to the Corzine campaign.

Corzine needs to get out ahead of the corruption image. He has managed to stay above it for now; gaining independent votes despite recent Democratic scandals in the state, but the latest round of spots by Forrester are pushing the image of corruption. If Corzine plans to hold on to that independent advantage, if the poll is accurate, then he needs to come out strong ahead of this mess and speak with plans to end corruption, and air some positive ads detailing plans.

For Forrester, the strategy appears clear; keep hammering away and hope to link Corzine with corruption. Additionally McCain’s recent visit should also help Forrester lock in more of the Republican base that has been reluctant to support him.