The Hotline has been reporting today that in most polls Corzine is leading in the race for Governor, and any momentum Forrester appeared to have in October seems to have come to a screeching halt. Which brings back what has been my favorite topic to debate recently, who Corzine should/would pick to fill his seat upon taking office as the Governor? Early on I suggested Codey and have largely stuck by that for a number of reasons, additionally in the running are Representatives Holt and Menendez.

Menendez appears to be an early favorite, he has lobbied hard for Corzine during this entire race, and has been filling his campaign coffers. In last quarter’s report, ending September 30th, Menendez has this year raised about $3.3 million, and has near $4.1 million in cash on hand. A friend of mine who worked for Menendez over the summer stopped into his congressional office back in September as the end of the quarter results were coming in. According to him everyone in the office seemed really positive, the over all impression was that Menendez is going to be Corzine’s pick, and they have the money to show the DSCC that they can raise. Also keep in mind that national Democrats like Menendez, a lot, he’s currently the caucus chair in the House and often seen as an up and coming star in the party. Additionally Menendez comes from a safe district, one that party Democrats would not mind putting into contention in 2006 since they should be able to easily win it back, Menendez has held his seat since 1992.

The other often floated name is Rush Holt. Holt is perhaps best known for the campaign sticker that reads “My Congressman is a Rocket Scientist”. Holt has a great record and is well respected in New Jersey and by the party, but he has a few stumbling blocks if he were to be picked for Senate. First, his district is the home of Republican candidate for Governor Doug Forrester, and is anything but safe. In a year where keeping the seats we have and building upon them is important, I imagine there will be intense lobbying from national Democrats for Holt to stay put, and wait his turn, when Lautenberg retires again. Additionally, Holt is made all the more unattractive because in comparison to Menendez he can’t raise money nearly as well. At the end of the last quarter, Holt has raised only $440,553, and his cash on hand totals only $400,677. With two strikes against him Senator Schumer and the DSCC would probably rather him not run. However, there’s often speculation in the op-ed pages that Corzine may choose Holt because of his reserved style, similar to his own. However, true as that may be, this choice will probably in large part be dictated by what Schumer wants as well, after all with everything going on we need to put our best feet forward for 2006.

So why Codey? Why should Corzine pick the man who was once only the state’s Senate President and claims to want nothing more? A lot of reasons, frankly. First, the benefits to Corzine are pretty clear. Codey is hugely popular in New Jersey, entering office after McGreevy and being in the same party still able to restore trust in the Governor’s office. Codey has managed to work positively for New Jersey and gain huge support from the people. The Newark Star Ledger in an Op-Ed on Sunday in which they endorsed Forrester said:

Like many of you, we’ve come away from this gubernatorial campaign with little affection for either candidate. Candidly, we’d rather vote for acting Gov. Richard Codey and call it a day.

People believe that Codey would be better suited to stop corruption, and think Corzine will have a tough time dealing with the party machines, also revealed in that endorsement. Codey’s popularity would make him a key force to be dealt with if he returns to the NJ legislature, and Corzine would rather not have someone contesting him in the state for popularity and power.

Earlier this year Codey was forced to step a side for Corzine in the 2005 run for the party’s nomination for governor. Corzine, who funded himself, simply had more money and more resources than Codey could match at the time. Additionally, I speculate that Codey knew he had the popularity to raise the money if necessary, and use the podium of the governor for the same, but Codey must’ve made some kind of deal with Corzine to step aside. It’s worth noting that until recently Codey also remained silent in support for Corzine during the campaign, after recent talks however, Codey has been on the trail supporting the Democrat for office.

Finally, the Democrats realize just how popular he is it’d be a way to keep a senate seat that will be contested by a formidable Republican, Tom Kean Jr., and keeps all of New Jersey’s democratically held House seats safe. According to the Hotline,

At a recent event, Codey says DSCC chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) pulled him aside to whisper in his ear: “The most popular one always becomes the candidate.”

It appears as though the ball is very much in Codey’s court, and I predict he will be the first name called by Governor Corzine if he wins the election. Corzine would be repaying Codey for his help, getting a political opponent out of the state, and not be forced to make a king between other candidates who have expressed great interest; much of Codey’s appeal after all is his humility. We’ll soon find out, but as I’ve said, don’t be surprised to see Senator Richard Codey coming to DC soon.