Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) has promised to vote “no” on the Alito nomination, according to the Washington Times today. He’ll vote today to end the Democratic filibuster and eventually won’t support Alito’s nomination in the up-or-down vote. This is probably a safe bet for Chafee given the outrage in (blue) Rhode Island that could erupt if he voted yes… but it will only prove safe if he can make it through the GOP primaries this fall.

His GOP challenger, former mayer of Cranston, RI, Steve Laffey, and Dem challenger Matt Brown, have each levied attacks on Linc for being a “flip-flopper”: Laffey said that Linc has an “inability to make a firm decision, which once again made him irrelevant to the process in the Senate.” As a very conservative Republican, Laffey’s future prospects in the Senate seem especially irrelevant. On the other hand, if Laffey can wrest the GOP nomination away from Chafee because of local Republican disillusionment with Chafee’s moderate voting record (National Journal says his social policy votes are more liberal than 60% of Senators).

If the “no” vote against Alito does hand Laffey the GOP nod this fall, it “could kill the GOP’s chance of holding a seat in liberal Rhode Island,” because a Laffey candidacy would almost certainly be too conservative to win in Rhode Island.